Risks and Trade-Offs
Robert L. Hershey, P. E.
2114th
Meeting Abstract
Friday, February 11, 2000 at 8:30 P.M.
Abstract:
Risks and trade-offs affect the decisions we make as individuals and as a
society. How much money does a bettor lose and how much money does the state
make on an average lottery ticket? Is it advantageous to buy collision
insurance for a car? These questions involve the "mathematical
expectation" what you can expect to gain minus what you can expect to
lose. What is the probability of glass breaking under dynamic loading, such as
wind, blast, or sonic boom? A protective laminated glass barrier has been
proposed for the White House by architect Arthur Cotton Moore. What are the
trade-offs of using such a glass barrier in reopening Pennsylvania Avenue? The
closing of Pennsylvania Avenue has cost tens of millions of dollars per year in
lost time due to traffic congestion. Trade-offs also occur in considering the
costs of pollution controls. Examples of controlling particulate emissions in
Eastern Europe will be discussed.
About the Author:
Robert L. Hershey received his B.S. summa cum laude in mechanical engineering
from Tufts University in 1963 and his M.S. in mechanical engineering from MIT
in 1964. He received his Ph.D. in engineering from Catholic University of
America in 1973. His doctoral dissertation was a statistical model to determine
the probability of glass breakage under dynamic loading. He has held
engineering and management positions at Bell Telephone Laboratories, Weston
Instruments, BBN, and Booz Allen and Hamilton. As Division Vice President of
Science Management Corporation, he ran the firm's Washington operations,
consulting in energy and environment. Since 1988, he has been a consulting
engineer in program planning. He has written articles for the Horizon section
of the Washington Post, and he is the author of the book "How to Think
with Numbers."
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